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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
This article is open to non-members to read, so I thought I would link it here for fellow members.


The biggest move in the motor vehicle industry in many many years is looking like a wave in the industry now. Of course these will not be produced in the same numbers as ICE vehicles in the early years, but I think any question as to proliferation of EVs in the industry is now answered. They are coming.. big time.
 

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We can only hope that the charging infrastructure will be significantly improved.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
We can only hope that the charging infrastructure will be significantly improved.
It may be spotty in some states in the US in the early end of the proliferation, but it certainly will be something many big companies will see as an investment gold mine to invest in and stand up infrastructure.

My guess is there are some states that are oil friendly and oil beholding states that will not want to invest in charging infrastructure unless/until big oil jumps in with both feet as they see gas consumption begin to decline. These states may even pass legislation making it unattractive for corporations to stand up charging infrastructure, in order to protect the interests of their big oil overlords.

I bet ultimately we will see a battle for charging station market share, and that will result in the long term with over-supply rather than shortage. My guess is some states will see big oil, venture capital firms, and power and utility companies all fighting for market share on their investments in charging infrastructure.

Personally I still see the plug-in hybrid as the most popular non-ICE vehicles sales in coming years. It offers most of the benefits, and none of the charging infrastructure constraints. At some point EVs may gain crossover volumes in the market but my guess is it will be 2030 or later before EVs really start to look more attractive to buyer than Plugin hybrids and traditional ICE power trains.
 

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Like many, I am so used to being able to just get in the car, and drive. If the fuel gauge gets near the bottom, there is almost always a place to fill up in just minutes.

AND at least personally, I am confused about all the different charging types, speeds, connectors, and apparently, there isn't any "standard'...I can visualize needing a charge, getting to a charging station, and finding that whatever type of cable and plug my EV came with doesn't fit the charging station. I just can't see EVs becoming mainstream without some kind of standardization.

I don't care about 0-60 times, as some EV's promote neck braking acceleration. I suspect that I am not alone in the mainstream.
 

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Power grid is decrepit, old, and vulnerable to hackers. Last year the power grid failed here in CA during 116 degree heat. It was awful. Have no idea how any one could charge their EV's.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
AND at least personally, I am confused about all the different charging types, speeds, connectors, and apparently, there isn't any "standard'...I can visualize needing a charge, getting to a charging station, and finding that whatever type of cable and plug my EV came with doesn't fit the charging station. I just can't see EVs becoming mainstream without some kind of standardization.
There are actually only a few variations in charging connection and it does appear like the industry is heading for a standard, at least within a national boundary.

Other than the special Tesla charging stations, all the charging stations around here that I see (which admittedly are fairly new, I even have a brand new set of 4 in the parking lot of my local grocery now) and one is for Tesla and the others are multipurpose, with several different charging nozzles (for lack of a better word) to cover different charging requirements. Teslas are always the outliers in the industry it seems.
 

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Power grid does not have the capacity to charge the 1000's of coming EV's - expect rolling blackout due to EV charging.
Your analysis of power grid loading continues to be flawed larryr. You are looking at a 4 dimensional problem through two dimensional lens.

Most owners will charge their vehicles at home, at night, when power demand is at it's lowest on local grids. Which also defrays need for local charging stations by quite a lot. It is long road trips and reliance on charging mid-trip that poses the real challenge for owners.

Further... even here in California, our power grids are very well managed and there is almost always plenty of spare capacity available even during peak power use (peak power is well offset by our rather large power contributions by solar and wind in California during daylight hours. We have literally only run out of power on the grid two times in the last 20 years in California.. other than power loss due to fires and down power lines, and even those generally only affect local residents, not the state grid. Today, for example.. the Grid capacity is 47,211 megawatts, and peak power use is only 31,079 megawatts. California ISO - Today's Outlook

Of course not every state is managing their grid as well as California... so yeah.. in some states capacity is likely an issue that needs to be addressed ahead of demand, due to lead times to stand up more capacity. Texas for example, being completely disconnected from the rest of the national grid (due to Texas insistence) means they have not leverage to buffer unusual sudden demands by buying surplus power from other grid providers. But that is an issue completely fabricated by Texas "nationalism" not the national grid.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Power grid is decrepit, old, and vulnerable to hackers. Last year the power grid failed here in CA during 116 degree heat. It was awful. Have no idea how any one could charge their EV's.
Honestly, these drive by shots at California's power grid are mostly misinformed and based on local annecdotes, hearsay, and social media fiction. I can't speak for other states, but I can speak for California, because I do watch the daily grid forecasts, demand, and surpluses.... weeks in advance actually via California ISO - Today's Outlook A lot of folks in California, like myself still remember when the grid was a mess at the turn of the century, and hence learned, and continue learn and monitor the grid metrics and forecasts... because a prepared consumer is a consumer that will not get surprised by unexpected power loss. Happily, our grid is in much better health and scalability than 21 years ago.

Like larryr, you are looking at things in two dimensions that actually are more complex than you realize.

California has excellent grid management, under their umbrella ISO management group that works with all the utility companies to load predict, load balance, and even manage deferrals of maintenance when power demands are particularly high. As such.. California's grid may have local issues due to fire, extreme heat, or downed power lines due to wind... but the grid is solid and has plenty of surplus capacity.. mainly because ISO can predict daily demand in advance and can plan accordingly to not suffer rolling blackouts.

Today, September 17, 2021.. the California grid has a surplus of 35% of capacity (16,000 megawatts to be exact) that is not needed. ISO will adjust the power they buy, as well as schedule early maintenance and other infrastructure requirements when there is this much surplus. The state is also on the national power grid and can freely buy and sell surplus power with other states utilities (except for the rogue state of Texas that insists it be on it's own isolated grid).

I encourage you to learn about the grid in California, and do not fixate on a local outage due to unusual circumstances or local anecdotes. The vulnerable parts of the grid in our state are in rural foothills and mountains, where wind and fire are the main events that can drop a local portion of the power grid, and represents a small fraction of the total population of the state.
 

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I usually agree with you but not now. I've lived in California many years but I take a national view. The US power grid is extremely vulnerable to hacking. In addition, Today, 70 percent of the lines and large power transformers are more than 25 years old, and we don't have enough of them in areas of the country with the best new energy resources. It's an outdated infrastructure that supports an equally old and cumbersome business model – vertically integrated utilities. All those EV's will be spread throughout the nation. BTW, there are those, including the LA Times, who argue that California has the nations worse power grid. Others argue that California utilities play too close to the margins. Still others blame the green movement. You're the only Californian I know of who argues that everything is hunk-dory. I hope you never have to spend three days without electricity when it's 116 degrees durinjg the day and 95 degrees in your house at night. I hope you never have to try to get on the 101 in an attempt to get the ocean at 8AM on one of those days and find the freeway is backed up all of the way from Santa Barbara to Downtown LA because millions were trying to get out. It was like the end times. So, this is real life, anecdotal, unforgettable pain and fear. No, hearsay, social media fake news. This was my life. They came to replace the power poles earlier this year. I was told by LADWP the power poles being replaced were at least 100 years old. But let's focus nationally. The greatest threat is vulnerability to hacking. Broad swaths of the nations power grid could be brought down in seconds. Where for art thou charging stations then? If one really wants to know the truth about energy, climate, etc, keep abreast of the insurance companies, How U.S. Plans to Protect Power Grid From Foreign Hackers
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 · (Edited)
I usually agree with you but not now. I've lived in California many years but I take a national view. The US power grid is extremely vulnerable to hacking. In addition, Today, 70 percent of the lines and large power transformers are more than 25 years old, and we don't have enough of them in areas of the country with the best new energy resources. It's an outdated infrastructure that supports an equally old and cumbersome business model – vertically integrated utilities. All those EV's will be spread throughout the nation. BTW, there are those, including the LA Times, who argue that California has the nations worse power grid. Others argue that California utilities play too close to the margins. Still others blame the green movement. You're the only Californian I know of who argues that everything is hunk-dory. I hope you never have to spend three days without electricity when it's 116 degrees durinjg the day and 95 degrees in your house at night. I hope you never have to try to get on the 101 in an attempt to get the ocean at 8AM on one of those days and find the freeway is backed up all of the way from Santa Barbara to Downtown LA because millions were trying to get out. It was like the end times. So, this is real life, anecdotal, unforgettable pain and fear. No, hearsay, social media fake news. This was my life. They came to replace the power poles earlier this year. I was told by LADWP the power poles being replaced were at least 100 years old. But let's focus nationally. The greatest threat is vulnerability to hacking. Broad swaths of the nations power grid could be brought down in seconds. Where for art thou charging stations then? If one really wants to know the truth about energy, climate, etc, keep abreast of the insurance companies, How U.S. Plans to Protect Power Grid From Foreign Hackers
We can agree to disagree if you like. You are pushing the same sound bite complaints as many power consumers... who could care less about the grid until they experience a power outage.. then it's doomsday rhetoric left and right.

I monitor the state power grid web site daily, as I want to see any potential issues of power shortages BEFORE the run me over. My experience and my monitoring of the state power grid does not agree with your assessment. Not even close. But I get it.. all you care about is.. the power dropped where you live during a heat wave, so the entire state grid is by definition junk to you.

Your concerns about the national power grid is speculation presented as fact in my view. How about we not jump the shark on hacking of power grids. Nation states are the only actors that can effectively do this, and the repercussion of doing so largely prevent anyone actually doing it, especially as a nation wide hack. And it is not as easy as you project it to be. Unlike the extremely poor pipeline security we saw recently where hackers took a pipeline down, the power grid security (except probably in Texas) is much better secured. The pipeline owner literally had ignored serious cyber security advice and upgrades.. for years. But if you want to jump the shark.. OK.. we can both do that.. so I predict that a massive tidal wave will wipe out the entire county of LA. But I very much doubt either my shark or yours will come to pass in our lifetime. :)

It is much easier to take power grids down by blowing up substations and overloading a grid.. and you know what.. that never happens because there is no percentage in doing so as there are many easier and more important targets for anarchists or terrorists to attack in the US.. if they can keep from being constantly infiltrated and interdicted by the FBI. Just because you can imagine it.. does not make it a reality.

As for the rest of your expressed outrage at the California power grid.... you are entitled to your opinion of course.. but you are making accusations about the state grid that are pure social media fiction and appear to be based on anecdotes of your personal experience, which does not properly provide context on the state wide grid levels. The fact is the state grid is quite robust and rarely suffers overloads. Some specific communities are vulnerable to power interruptions due to fire or wind taking power lines down, but that does not mean the grid is junk.. it simply means mother nature has a say in some power distribution sometimes, particularly in rural California. Like it or not what happens locally is NOT indicative of what happens state wide. The closest I have seen the California power grid to rolling blackouts in the last decade was a few years ago when we had a heat wave drop on the state at the exact time some power stations were due to go down for maintenance.. and ISO simply ordered those power stations to stay online and defer maintenance until the weather cooled + purchased surplus power from out of state, across the national grid.. which is why there is a national grid... for national power sharing. Before that the previous one was in 2006. And age of transmission line infrastructure is misleading, because a well maintained old set of transmission lines are in most cases as reliable as brand new ones. Maintenance is the key.. and some utilities have lapsed in this regard and got crucified for it too and had to up their game.

Anyway.. we are well off topic now and I suggest we both get back on topic.
 

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Most owners will charge their vehicles at home, at night, when power demand is at it's lowest on local grids. Which also defrays need for local charging stations by quite a lot. It is long road trips and reliance on charging mid-trip that poses the real challenge for owners.
Your opinion is flawed. As you assume everyone that gets an EV will have a charging station at their residence. It is not going to happen in New York City as there is no parking near where everyone lives. (yes, there are cars in NYC, few in Manhatten but plenty in the other boroughs, and most other old cities are the same as NYC. Not everyone live in suburbs with private parking.
There are charging stations in the parking lots of employers that are charging during the day. Travelers are not going to wait for night to charge their EV.
EV trucks that the Post Office and Amazon are using have to be charged at lunch time to get their full loads delivered.
The EV trucks that Walmart and others do not just sit at night - they deliver their loads at night and charge during the day and at every stop along the way as they deliver goods.
True that many will charge at home, but the majority of Americans live in apartment complexes and will not be charging at home/night - they will be charging at charging stations or their place of employment.
In my part of the country, few EV's are charged at home, they drive to a recharge station and plug in there during the day for 30 minutes while they shop at the store with the charging station. What I feel will be the norm everywhere since most of America is not like California, the housing is old without garages or enough amperage to their homes to provide a charging station so 90% will be using the charging stations during the day.
They are building wind farms in Kansas and Missouri, but we do not have a constant source of wind every day.
The US is not building as many new Nuclear Reactors to replace the ones that are heading for retirement. Almost every reactor in the USA is past the life expected as the radiation is degrading the metal in the pipes that cool the reactors.
 

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I'd point out, the complete end to end structure may (will) need re-tooling. It's somewhat irrelevant to argue (discuss) what the situation is today, because if it's not up to snuff, it will need to be overhauled. Simple as that.

The planet (our only one) is more or less demanding it, ignore at your own peril. Another somewhat revolutionary aspect is the possibility of solid state batteries, which will charge much more rapidly. For that to happen the charging stations will have to have much higher current.

This, I think, is where hydrogen will play a part. One off stations, powered by hydrogen, could be much like gas stations which have tankers deliver hydrogen rather than gas. Of course the question is; 'where does the hydrogen come from?'

Things are changing rapidly, it's crunch time, so to speak. Numerous companies around the world are developing ways to create (extract) hydrogen. It's really just a matter of time.
 

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Politics are not permitted to be discussed in the forum per site rules. (and yes, states are political entities, so how a state manages its grid and traffic CAN be considered political), When we have members with strong differing opinions in this area, it becomes political.

It is wonderful to discuss new trends in the automotive world. Let's keep it there, shall we?
 
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